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\ctrline{\lv QUOTES from}
\ctrline{\lv On the State of Artificial Intelligence in 1984}
\ctrline {\lv an Early Prediction}
\ctrline{\lv by}
\ctrline{\lv Arthur L. Samuel}
\lv
\par
``One will be able to browse through
the fiction section of the central library, enjoy an evening's light
entertainment viewing any movie that has ever been produced (for a
suitable fee, of course, since Hollywood will still be commercial), or
inquire as to the previous day's production figures for tin in Bolivia ---
all for the asking via one's remote terminal.  Libraries for books will
have ceased to exist in the more advanced countries, except for a few that
will be preserved as museums, and most of the world's knowledge will be in
machine-readable form.''

``...automatic translation via the telephone will also have come into
use--- although perhaps not into general use, because of the cost and the
gradual drift toward a universal language.''

``will alter teaching methods on
the basis of experience.''

``Process control with the attending automation,
while delegated to simpler computers, will have reached a very high degree
of development so that the number of factory workers will drop
precipitously.  These displaced people will go into the service
industries, and a few into the design and maintenance of the machines
which replace them.  Science and the arts will be flourishing.  The work
week will have been shortened to four days, but we will still have an
unemployment problem.''  I did add that  ``Making this dire prediction will,
of course, help to nullify it.''

``The world draughts [the paper was published in
England], chess and go champions will, of cource, have met defeat at the
hands of the computer.  ... Computers will have largely taken over the
task of composing and arranging music, at least for popular entertainment,
and many people will vie with each other in regard to the quality of the
mood music which their own personal computer, or personal program can
produce.  As far as literature is concerned, the computer will still be a
neophyte although who-done-its will be turned out by the million.''

``Computers will not have contributed as
much as some people have predicted with respect to making basic
contributions to mathematics and science and, somehow or other, all
attempts to invest them with truly creative abilities will have failed.

There will still be a place in the world for people!''


``As always, with any revolution, there is a lunatic
fringe---people who believe in magic, or who are carried away with their
enthusiasm for a new cause and who make wild claimes which tend to
discredit the entire undertaking. The field of artificial intelligence
has, perhaps, had more than its share of these people.''

``writing science
fiction to titillate the public and to make an easy dollar or a synthetic
reputation.''

I went wrong, however, because I did not make due allowances for the fact
that developments in terminals, in data transmission facilities and in
programming languages would not keep pace with those in main frame
development, and progress in A.I. is critically dependent upon these
facilities. I also did now allow for the stulifying effect of Government
research support policies which were to demand immediate results rather
than long range progress.

\par
\vfill
\end